Survivors Bias, Dropping out of college isn't that great idea!

Let me tell you the story of world war 2, British were losing their bomber aircraft at an increasing rate against the German army, but they desperately wanted to find a solution to this problem, So they analyzed all the air crafts that came back. They noted and found out the areas of the aircraft where most of the bullets were hit or damage happened, and they decided to armor those parts of the aircraft, sounds intuitive, isn’t it? But to their surprise, the applied mathematics department had a different plan (I was shocked by the fact that they had applied mathematics in the military) So Abraham Wald, based on his statistical research suggested the British military, Armor those parts of the aircraft where no damage is seen or observed, but this brought huge success in coming war days. The reason behind this counterintuitive decision was that they were only looking at the aircraft which returned. means that all the aircraft hit by German in different areas failed to return, so all surviving aircraft suggested to them that, bomber aircraft were stronger where they had damage, so they needed to armor those parts of aircraft where no damage had been seen as they were failing to return.

That is the perfect example of survival bias, When someone shows you a person who is healthy even after doing all alcohol and smoking, you are just looking at a person one in million, What about all other 9,99,999 people? So never believe in survivors it is just luck sometimes, Now you might be wondering what is that has to deal with your passion or dropping out of college. let me explain, We only see those big names who got successful in life after following their passion, maybe 11 members of cricket, that one famous singer, or a big businessman, or an actor. What about all others who worked equally hard or sometimes more than these successful people? Only survivors get the chance to make the rules, this reminds me of what Manoj Bajpayee said in a show. He said and I quote “Jisko Safalta Nahi Mili hai Usko Bewakuf Nahi Samhajna” (Just because someone didn’t get success, doesn’t mean they are fools).

So I don’t discourage you to follow your passion, but I wanted to tell you that if you couldn't it is not the end of the world. You can excellence in the field you work in, it is okay not to become like your ideal. You are just playing a game where all odds are against you, don’t drive yourself by survivors. Also, see the people who didn’t make it! So waste your life by living! and do whatever it takes, work hard and never let success dictate your happiness, Sometimes luck plays a role too.